So the thing is clear, although we do not know when. But I think the unemployment rate has already reached its lows, and we only need to see what the yield curve does.
No, there are no signs of overheating (unless the Stock Market is one). However, at the end of my article, I invited readers to read Jeffrey Frankel’s article in which he says that if there are no signs, today, of excesses, there will inevitably be. Why? Because Trump’s policy is wildly pro-cyclical and for both fiscal and monetary reasons, and also for structural reasons – dismantling everything that had been done good with the Dodd-Frank Banking Prudence Act – inevitably the economy will overheat. and it will have a very abrupt dry stop It seems to me that Frankel is right, and very well explained, so I leave the word to him:
“Whatever the immediate trigger, the consequences for the US are likely to be severe, for one simple reason: the US government continues to pursue pro-cyclical fiscal, macroprudential, and even monetary policies. While it is difficult to set an exactly correct countercyclical schedule, that is no excuse for procyclical policy, an approach that puts the US in a weak position to handle the next inevitable shock.
“During phases of economic growth, the budget deficit generally decreases, at least as a percentage of GDP. But now that the US embarks on its most radically pro-cyclical fiscal expansion since the late 1960s and perhaps World War II, the Congressional Budget Office projects the deficit to rapidly grow from the federal government to exceed $ 1 billion this year.
“The US deficit is skyrocketing in both falling revenue and rising spending. Although a reduction in the corporate tax rate was needed, the tax bill that Congressional Republicans signed into law last December was not income neutral (it did not leave income stable), as it should have been. Like the Republican-led administrations of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, the Trump administration says it favors small government, but it is actually very wasteful. As a result, when the next recession hits, the United States will lack the fiscal space to respond.
“The Trump administration’s adoption of financial deregulation is also pro-cyclical and intensifies changes in the market. The